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The final quarter of the year is always a critical time for supply chains. Between holiday surges, seasonal slowdowns in certain sectors, and unpredictable risks like weather and theft, shippers can’t afford to go into Q4 without a plan.
At RCS Freight Services, we work directly with carriers and customers every day, so we see firsthand how market conditions affect your shipments. Here’s our outlook for Q4 2025, what trends to watch, what risks to prepare for, and how RCS helps keep your freight moving no matter what the market throws at you.
Throughout much of 2025, capacity has outweighed demand. That trend hasn’t changed yet. In Q4, most shippers will continue to have leverage when it comes to finding trucks and negotiating rates.
Contract rates remain relatively stable or slightly down compared to the past few years. Shippers who have renegotiated recently are in a strong position. Spot rates may tick up modestly, especially around peak holiday weeks or in storm-affected regions, but no large spikes are expected unless demand sharply outpaces supply. Flatbed and specialized freight are still influenced by steel, construction, and manufacturing cycles. Some softness remains in these industries, which helps keep capacity accessible.
Takeaway: Shippers are still in the driver’s seat, but last-minute moves during high-volume weeks could come at a premium.
Fuel has been one of the biggest cost variables for freight in recent years. The good news heading into Q4 is that diesel prices are forecast to ease slightly. Increased global inventories and OPEC+ supply efforts are expected to help keep costs from climbing.
But fuel is never completely predictable. Any disruption in supply chains, refinery output, or geopolitics can send diesel upward in a hurry.
Takeaway: Budget conservatively, but enjoy the fact that fuel dynamics are likely to be more supportive than they’ve been in recent quarters.
Even in a generally soft market, Q4 brings added challenges that shippers need to prepare for.
Cargo Theft:
Organized theft rings continue to target high-value commodities, and the holiday season historically sees a spike in incidents. Criminals are getting more sophisticated with impersonation tactics and false carrier identities.
Weather Disruptions:
From late-season hurricanes to early snowstorms, Q4 can bring severe weather that squeezes capacity and extends transit times.
Cross-Border Delays:
With San Antonio as a key hub for cross-border freight, we’re watching for congestion and policy changes at key crossings like Laredo and El Paso. Any shifts can ripple into extended lead times.
Plan critical shipments early and lock in coverage for holiday weeks or sensitive freight lanes before demand tightens.
Build in flexibility with alternate routes or carriers identified in case weather or congestion creates issues.
Strengthen security SOPs with steps like verifying carriers, checking IDs, and maintaining communication checkpoints to minimize theft risk.
Stay updated on fuel by watching weekly surcharge updates and adjusting expectations if volatility returns.
Leverage broker partnerships so you aren’t caught off-guard by sudden shifts.
At RCS, we take a proactive, hands-on approach to navigating market swings for our customers.
Carrier Vetting:
We continuously review authority, insurance, and safety scores to ensure only reliable carriers handle your loads.
Capacity Planning:
We map out shipper demand against seasonal patterns so we can secure trucks before markets tighten.
Real-Time Monitoring:
Our team tracks spot rates, diesel prices, and theft trends weekly and shares updates so you can react quickly.
Cross-Border Expertise:
With operations out of San Antonio, we’re prepared to keep freight flowing across the U.S.–Mexico border even when conditions change.
Clear Communication:
We believe reliability starts with information. You’ll always know where things stand.
Q4 2025 is shaping up to be relatively stable for shippers. Rates remain favorable, capacity is accessible, and fuel costs are trending supportive. But risks like cargo theft and weather disruptions mean planning and vigilance are still essential.
The shippers who finish the year strong will be the ones who prepare early, stay flexible, and partner with providers who know how to navigate volatility.
Ready to secure your Q4 strategy? Contact RCS Freight Services today and let’s build a plan to keep your supply chain on schedule and on budget through the end of 2025.